Trade Linkages and Output-multiplier Effects

2001
Trade Linkages and Output-multiplier Effects

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  • Author: Kristin J. Forbes
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 33

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification strategy that significantly reduces the number of unknowns and allows cross-country relationships to vary over time. Then it uses this model to examine the impact of shocks to 11 Asian countries, the U.S. and the rest of the OECD. The model produces reasonably good short-term forecasts. Impulse-response matrices suggest that these multiplier effects are large and significant and can transmit shocks in very different patterns than predicted from a bilateral-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that are relatively minor bilateral trading partners. JEL Classification: C32, C504.

Trade Linkages and Output-multiplier Effects

2001
Trade Linkages and Output-multiplier Effects

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  • Author: Tilak Abeysinghe
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Asia
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 50

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification strategy that significantly reduces the number of unknowns and allows cross-country relationships to vary over time. Then it uses this model to examine the impact of shocks to 11 Asian countries, the U.S. and the rest of the OECD. The model produces reasonably good short-term forecasts. Impulse-response matrices suggest that these multiplier effects are large and significant and can transmit shocks in very different patterns than predicted from a bilateral-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that are relatively minor bilateral trading partners.

The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

2019-08-16
The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

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  • Author: Hector Perez-Saiz
  • Publisher: International Monetary Fund
  • ISBN: 1498324487
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 37

We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries. We first propose two network centrality measures to assess the role of some sectors as key input providers in the economy. Then, we use these measures to quantify the effect of sectoral linkages on sectoral and total output following an increase in remittances inflows. Our empirical results suggest that the effects of remittances on recipient economies increase with the degree of linkages across sectors, which is especially prominent in the case of the financial intermediation sector. Our paper contributes to the emerging macroeconomic literature on the propagation of shocks across sectors and the implications for the whole economy.

Financial Globalization and the Emerging Market Economy

2004-01-22
Financial Globalization and the Emerging Market Economy

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  • Author: Dilip K. Das
  • Publisher: Routledge
  • ISBN: 1134333161
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 374

The whirlwind of financial globalization has descended upon emerging market economies and rapid change has brought both benefits and problems upon a dynamic group of nations.This book examines the impact of ever increasing financial globalization on emerging market economies, both in the former communist countries of Eastern Europe and the developi

Employment, Hours and Earnings, National

1986
Employment, Hours and Earnings, National

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  • Author:
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Hours of labor
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 90

Global Economic Uncertainties and Southeast Asian Economies

2016-05-13
Global Economic Uncertainties and Southeast Asian Economies

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  • Author: Suthiphand Chirathivat
  • Publisher: Flipside Digital Content Company Inc.
  • ISBN: 9814695033
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 363

The aftermath of the global economic breakdown in 2008-9 underscores the risks facing Southeast Asia's growth prospects. Although the region has demonstrated exceptional resilience to external shocks emanating from economic powerhouses around the globe, Southeast Asia is in dire need of an optimal policy mix of macroeconomic and trade policy measures that differ by country, underpin domestic demand, and revive domestic economies. This book offers in-depth, region-specific economic policy discourse that illuminates how a policy push is at work in the region, and sheds light on room for strengthening regional cooperation.This book aims to: (1) discuss the developments of macroeconomic and trade-policy mix against the backdrop of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and economic prospects for major countries in Southeast Asia (i.e., Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam); (2) assess the effectiveness of policy responses to the global economic unrest; (3) identify opportunities and challenges facing Southeast Asia in the midst of the global economic slump when developing Southeast Asia leverages on an ever-expanding role in the global business environment; (4) rethink the East Asian model of growth where enormous gains were driven principally by export demands from advanced economies; and (5) pioneer the key areas of regional cooperation and macroeconomic and trade policy reforms that may potentially strengthen regional economies.

China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission

2021-04-12
China and ASEAN: Pivoting Trade and Shock Transmission

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  • Author: Mala Raghavan
  • Publisher: Springer Nature
  • ISBN: 9811616183
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 114

This book highlights the critical relationship between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) associated with its trade interdependency. As the largest trade partner in the region, China has not only presented itself with opportunities for ASEAN to tap its market, but also created great challenges for the region. The fundamental question that this book addresses, therefore, is whether China’s engagement with ASEAN comes at a cost for the latter following from the systemic risks tied to the China-centric supply chains in the region. The trade interactions between China and ASEAN, though extensively explored, are less understood in the context of its influence over the region amidst the recent changing dynamics that follow from China’s global engagement and backlash from major powers. The book therefore resolutely rises against stereotypes and clichés, making readers reconsider many oversimplified assumptions of the benefits of trade engagement where economies are interconnected through complex production chains.

Sustaining Development and Growth in East Asia

2012-11-12
Sustaining Development and Growth in East Asia

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  • Author: Timo Henckel
  • Publisher: Routledge
  • ISBN: 1136208240
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 326

For several decades, fast-growing East Asia has been the envy of the developing world. Not only has East Asia outperformed all other regions of the world, but it also recovered surprisingly swiftly from the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis and the 2008–09 global financial crisis. Nevertheless, investment in the region remains subdued relative to pre-Asian crisis levels. Are current investment rates too low and, given greater investment, could the region grow even more rapidly? This book brings together a rich array of papers analyzing the determinants of, and impediments to, investment and growth. It discusses a range of issues bearing on investment and development. The chapters cover domestic and international economic, institutional and political factors, including the role of foreign direct investment, and the importance of public infrastructure, fiscal policy and export-oriented growth strategies. Trade and trade policy, in particular, are emphasized, with contributions ranging from an analysis of global production networks in electronics manufacturing, to the effects and implications of economic integration in the Mekong states. The chapters provide a healthy blend of theoretical and empirical analysis and offer a range of useful policy proposals. This book will be of interest to policy-makers, students and scholars of Asian economics and development economics alike.

Cross-border Partnerships in Higher Education

2012
Cross-border Partnerships in Higher Education

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  • Author: Robin Sakamoto
  • Publisher: Routledge
  • ISBN: 0415530261
  • Category : Education
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 332

"Cross-border Partnerships in Higher Education is a welcome addition to the academic literature on the scope and impact of international partnerships in a very dynamic higher education market. Robin Sakamoto and David Chapman should be congratulated for this excellent contribution that can guide higher education institutions all over the world in thinking more strategically and achieving better results as they engage in cross-border partnerships."--Jamil Salmi, Tertiary Education Coordinator, The World Bank, Washington, DC.

Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

2016-10-31
Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

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  • Author: Leo Lester
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 9811010943
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 326

This volume goes beyond a conventional analysis of Asia’s energy relationships and explores the premise that energy relations in Asia in the 21st century should reinforce mutual interdependence. Conventional analyses of international energy relations stress the asymmetric nature of the risks and costs of disruptions to energy flows. Energy suppliers (net exporters) are concerned with the cost of a buyer looking elsewhere; energy consumers (net importers) are preoccupied with the costs associated with an interruption of supply. This perspective reflects the current transactional nature of energy relations and is clearly observed in the energy dynamics between countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the economies of Northeast Asia (NEA). As the economies of both the GCC and NEA have enlarged there is under-recognized potential for a move away from narrow transactional relations to broader, interdependent ones. This collection of essays from leading energy, strategic, and economic policy think tanks focused on how energy relations are forming in the 21st century offers energy scholars and policy makers answers to what these increasingly close relationships mean for international politics and trade.