Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

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  • Author: Richard W. Katz
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • ISBN: 9780521435710
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 244

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.


Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

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  • Author: Richard W. Katz (ed)
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • ISBN: 0521434203
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 239

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.


Making Climate Forecasts Matter

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

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  • Author: National Research Council
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 030917340X
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 189

El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.


Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

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  • Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 0309388805
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 351

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.


Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment

Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment

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  • Author: National Research Council
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 030908749X
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 182

This report addresses the transition of research satellites, instruments, and calculations into operational service for accurately observing and predicting the Earth's environment. These transitions, which take place in large part between NASA and NOAA, are important for maintaining the health, safety, and prosperity of the nation, and for achieving the vision of an Earth Information System in which quantitative information about the complete Earth system is readily available to myriad users. Many transitions have been ad hoc, sometimes taking several years or even decades to occur, and others have encountered roadblocksâ€"lack of long-range planning, resources, institutional or cultural differences, for instanceâ€"and never reached fruition. Satellite Observations of Earth's Environment recommends new structures and methods that will allow seamless transitions from research to practice.


A Vision for the National Weather Service

A Vision for the National Weather Service

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  • Author: National Research Council
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 0309173213
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 88

In this study, the committee explores ways the National Weather Service (NWS) can take advantage of continuing advances in science and technology to meet the challenges of the future. The predictions are focused on the target year 2025. Because specific predictions about the state of science and technology or the NWS more than 25 years in the future will not be entirely accurate, the goal of this report is to identify and highlight trends that are most likely to influence change. The Panel on the Road Map for the Future National Weather Service developed an optimistic vision for 2025 based on advances in science and technology.


Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast

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  • Author: National Research Council
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 0309180538
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 124

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.


The Socioeconomic Value of Climate and Weather Forecasting

The Socioeconomic Value of Climate and Weather Forecasting

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  • Author: James William Mjelde
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Weather forecasting
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 26


Predictability of Weather and Climate

Predictability of Weather and Climate

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  • Author: Tim Palmer
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • ISBN: 9781107414853
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 0

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.


Economic Value of Current an Improved Weather Forecasts in the U.S. Household Sector

Economic Value of Current an Improved Weather Forecasts in the U.S. Household Sector

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  • Author:
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Meteorological services
  • Languages : en
  • Pages :

This study was commissioned to assist in evaluating and quantifying, to the extent possible, the benefits to households of potential improvements in weather forecasting services, as well as how the public values current forecast services. Table S-1 presents this study's best estimates of annual per household values for improved and current weather forecasts. Based on Census estimates of about 105 million U.S. households, total national values for improving weather forecasts to the maximum levels proposed in the survey are estimated to be $1.73 billion per year. We also calculate an annual national value of $11.4 billion for current weather forecast services (which includes the value of all weather forecast information services from public and private sectors).