Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior

Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior

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  • Author: Jerry D. Tate
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 28


Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior

Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior

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  • Author:
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  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 0

This study was conducted to investigate the manner and degree to which a decision makers sequence of decisions is influenced by objectives of varying remoteness (term expectation) and by informational uncertainty. The effects of these two variables on sequential decision performance were studied in a 4 x 4 factorial experiment. Term expectation was defined as the number of problems over which the decision maker accumulated his score. Uncertainty was manipulate by controlling the number of events from which the subject was to predict a terminal event. Decisions (predictions) were made either at prescribed uncertainty levels or on a freely chosen basis (depending on the prevailing experimental conditions), and a range of choices varying in degree of risk and payoff was available at each uncertainty level. The same five subjects served in all conditions of the experiment. Choices were evaluated in terms of risk, expected value, and average departure from linear progression to mean winning score (DFL). No significant differences were obtained for term expectation, per se. Maximum expected values were achieved at intermediate levels of uncertainty. (Author).


U.S. Government Research Reports

U.S. Government Research Reports

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  • Author:
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  • ISBN:
  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 2194


Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports

Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports

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  • Author:
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  • ISBN:
  • Category : Aeronautics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 252


Business Service Check List

Business Service Check List

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  • Author:
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  • Category : Industries
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 218


Bibliography of Scientific and Industrial Reports

Bibliography of Scientific and Industrial Reports

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  • Author:
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  • Category : Technology
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 1172


A Bibliography of Reports Issued by the Behavioral Sciences Laboratory

A Bibliography of Reports Issued by the Behavioral Sciences Laboratory

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  • Author: Lavon E. Trygg
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Aviation medicine
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 100


Bibliography of Reports

Bibliography of Reports

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  • Author: United States. Wright Air Development Division. Behavioral Sciences Laboratory
  • Publisher:
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  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 92


Decision Making under Uncertainty

Decision Making under Uncertainty

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  • Author: Kerstin Preuschoff
  • Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
  • ISBN: 2889194663
  • Category : Biological psychiatry
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 144

Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.


Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity

Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity

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  • Author: Joe Lorkowski
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 3319622145
  • Category : Technology & Engineering
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 164

This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.