Operational Weather Forecasting

Operational Weather Forecasting

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  • Author: Peter Michael Inness
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
  • ISBN: 1118447638
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 248

This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-endprocess of forecast production, and bringing together a descriptionof all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; withplenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues andexamples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole processof forecast production, from understanding the nature of theforecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which toinitialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (ormodels) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time andthen interpreting the model output and putting it into a form whichis relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is thegeneration of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales,often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecastinghaving been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations inpractices between different forecasting centres. Thus theauthors have tried to be as generic as possible when describingaspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despitethe reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part toplay in producing weather forecasts and this is described, alongwith the issue of forecast verification – how forecastcentres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use thisbook to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-dayapplications of weather forecast production. In addition,professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional usersof weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member ofthe RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series avaluable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecastingprocess Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the bookdiscusses the practical choices that operational forecastingcentres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use andwhen they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studiesto contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemblemethods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satelliteimagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experiencein both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather andClimate’


An Objective System for Preparing Operational Weather Forecasts

An Objective System for Preparing Operational Weather Forecasts

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  • Author: Iver A. Lund
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Weather forecasting
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 58


Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Weather Analysis and Forecasting

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  • Author: Christo Georgiev
  • Publisher: Academic Press
  • ISBN: 0128004959
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 360

Weather Analysis and Forecasting: Applying Satellite Water Vapor Imagery and Potential Vorticity Analysis, Second Edition, is a step-by-step essential training manual for forecasters in meteorological services worldwide, and a valuable text for graduate students in atmospheric physics and satellite meteorology. In this practical guide, P. Santurette, C.G. Georgiev, and K. Maynard show how to interpret water vapor patterns in terms of dynamical processes in the atmosphere and their relation to diagnostics available from numerical weather prediction models. In particular, they concentrate on the close relationship between satellite imagery and the potential vorticity fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These applications are illustrated with color images based on real meteorological situations over mid-latitudes, subtropical and tropical areas. Presents interpretation of the water vapor channels 6.2 and 7.3μm as well as advances based on satellite data to improve understanding of atmospheric thermodynamics Improves by new schemes the understanding of upper-level dynamics, midlatitudes cyclogenesis and fronts over various geographical areas Provides analysis of deep convective phenomena to better understand the development of strong thunderstorms and to improve forecasting of severe convective events Includes efficient operational forecasting methods for interpretation of data from NWP models Offers information on satellite water vapor images and potential vorticity fields to analyse and forecast convective phenomena and thunderstorms


From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction

From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction

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  • Author: National Research Council
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 0309171652
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 96

This workshop report examines the capability of the forecast system to efficiently transfer weather and climate research findings into improved operational forecast capabilities. It looks in particular at the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Weather Service and environmental observational satellite programs. Using these examples, the report identifies several shortcomings in the capability to transition from research to operations. Successful transitions from R&D to operational implementation requires (1) understanding of the importance (and risks) of the transition, (2) development and maintenance of appropriate transition plans, (3) adequate resource provision, and (4) continuous feedback (in both directions) between the R&D and operational activities.


Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting

Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting

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  • Author: D.M. Burridge
  • Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
  • ISBN: 3642821324
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 280

Forecasting the weather for the long and medium range is a difficult and scientifically challenging problem. Since the first operational weather prediction by numerical methods was carried out (on the BESK computer in Stockholm, Sweden, 1954) . there has been an ever accelerating development in computer technology. Hand in hand has followed a tremendous increase in the complexity of the atmospheric models used for weather prediction. The ability of these models to predict future states of the atmosphere has also increased rapidly, both due to model development and due to more accurate and plentiful observations of the atmosphere to define the initial . state for model integrations. It may however be argued on theoretical grounds that even if we have an almost perfect model with almost perfect initial data, we will never be able to make an accurate weather prediction more than a few weeks ahead. This is due to the inherent instability of the atmosphere and work in this field was pioneered by E. Lorenz. It is generally referred to as atmospheric predict ability and in the opening chapter of this book Professor Lorenz gives us an overview of the problem of atmospheric predictability. The contributions to this book were originally presented at the 1981 ECMWF Seminar (ECMWF - European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) which was held at ECMWF in Reading, England, in September 1981.


Atmospheric Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects

Atmospheric Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects

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  • Author: Dario B. Giaiotti
  • Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
  • ISBN: 3211692916
  • Category : Technology & Engineering
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 227

This book treats atmospheric convection from different angles including the theoretical aspects of atmospheric deep convection and the weather phenomena related to convection. The problem of boundary conditions that result in severe convective weather patterns is explored within the framework of worldwide climatology. The book bridges the gap between theory and its operational application both within the fields of weather forecasting and that of risk management.


Introducing parallel computers into operational weather forecasting

Introducing parallel computers into operational weather forecasting

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  • Author: Tuomo Kauranne
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN: 9789517647151
  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 65


When Weather Matters

When Weather Matters

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  • Author: National Research Council
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 0309177022
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 199

The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to realize its prediction potential; as a result, the nation is not mitigating weather impacts to the extent possible. This book represents a sense of the weather community as guided by the discussions of a Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate community workshop held in summer 2009. The book puts forth the committee's judgment on the most pressing high level, weather-focused research challenges and research to operations needs, and makes corresponding recommendations. The book addresses issues including observations, global non-hydrostatic coupled modeling, data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, and quantitative precipitation and hydrologic forecasting. The book also identifies three important, emerging issues-predictions of very high impact weather, urban meteorology, and renewable energy development-not recognized or emphasized in previous studies. Cutting across all of these challenges is a set of socioeconomic issues, whose importance and emphasis-while increasing-has been undervalued and underemphasized in the past and warrants greater recognition and priority today.


Antarctic Operational Weather Forecasting

Antarctic Operational Weather Forecasting

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  • Author:
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 0

The United States Antarctic Program (USAP) has maintained three year-round research stations on Antarctica since the 1950's. Research conducted on the continent has taken advantage of the unique conditions afforded by Antarctica's location and climate; unfortunately, these characteristics have also required an immense logistics operation by the USAP to support its researchers. Operation Deep Freeze, the airlift portion of this endeavor, is supported by units of the U.S. Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard. Flights to and around the continent require accurate operational weather forecasts to minimize the threat posed by Antarctica's harsh, highly variable weather. This paper reviews literature on significant Antarctic weather features, primarily katabatic winds and mesocyclones, around McMurdo Station, the hub of USAP aviation activities. It then describes the analysis and forecasting tools, specifically, Automatic Weather Stations, space-based remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction, used by USAP forecasters to create their weather forecasts. Problems with these tools and required improvements, including the Ross Island Meteorological Experiment, are also highlighted.


Medium-Range Weather Prediction

Medium-Range Weather Prediction

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  • Author: Austin Woods
  • Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
  • ISBN: 9780387269283
  • Category : Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 296

This book provides an overview of the early years of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and reviews the work of the institute over the past 30 years, describing along the way the European approach to medium-range weather forecasting. Its combination of historical view and scientific insight is unique.