How to Expect the Unexpected

How to Expect the Unexpected

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  • Author: Kit Yates
  • Publisher: Basic Books
  • ISBN: 1541604946
  • Category : Mathematics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 371

A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by. This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.


Expect the Unexpected

Expect the Unexpected

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  • Author: Raluca Balan
  • Publisher: World Scientific
  • ISBN: 9814291323
  • Category : Medical
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 253

Statistical reasoning and modeling are of critical importance to modern biology. This textbook introduces fundamental concepts from probability and statistics which will pave the way for the student of biology to become a well-rounded scientist. No previous study of probability or statistics is assumed. Calculus topics are not used extensively in this book, though some integration and differentiation are expected. The calculus prerequisite is primarily intended to assure a certain level of mathematical maturity. This book puts emphasis on examples, which are presented to motivate the theory. The presentation style is concise and self-contained, briefly including the mathematical elements that are needed for studying probability and statistics. The examples are relevant to students in the life sciences with interests in genetics, biology, ecology, health, etc. We believe that aspects of probability theory are of biological interest and that probability underlies the theory of inferential statistics. Thus, we place an equal emphasis on probability and statistics which are both essential for solving and understanding many types of biological problems.


Expect the unexpected

Expect the unexpected

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  • Author: Tomi Ungerer
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN: 9783257021073
  • Category :
  • Languages : de
  • Pages : 63


The G. K. Chesterton Collection [50 Books]

The G. K. Chesterton Collection [50 Books]

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  • Author: G. K. Chesterton
  • Publisher: Catholic Way Publishing
  • ISBN: 1783792086
  • Category : Literary Criticism
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 6579

THE G. K. CHESTERTON COLLECTION [50 BOOKS] G. K. CHESTERTON — 50 Books in One: 22 Non-Fiction, 11 Fiction, 8 Biographies, 4 Poetry, 1 Play, 3 Critiques, 1 Introduction — Over 2.3 Million Words in one E-Book — Includes an Introduction to Gilbert Keith Chesterton — Includes an Active Index to all books and 50 Table of Contents for each book — Includes Illustrations by Claude Monet Gilbert Keith Chesterton (1874–1936) was an English writer. He wrote on philosophy, ontology, poetry, plays, journalism, public lectures and debates, literary and art criticism, biography, Christian apologetics, and fiction, including fantasy and detective fiction. Chesterton is often referred to as the "prince of paradox". Whenever possible, Chesterton made his points with popular sayings, proverbs, and allegories—first carefully turning them inside out. Chesterton is well known for his reasoned apologetics and even some of those who disagree with him have recognized the universal appeal of such works as Orthodoxy and The Everlasting Man. Chesterton, as a political thinker, cast aspersions on both progressivism and conservatism, saying, "The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected." Chesterton routinely referred to himself as an "orthodox" Christian, and came to identify such a position more and more with Catholicism, eventually converting to Roman Catholicism from High Church Anglicanism. George Bernard Shaw, Chesterton's "friendly enemy" said of him, "He was a man of colossal genius". INCLUDED BOOKS: GILBERT KEITH CHESTERTON —NON-FICTION— HERETICS ORTHODOXY WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE WORLD WHAT I SAW IN AMERICA THE NEW JERUSALEM IRISH IMPRESSIONS A SHORT HISTORY OF ENGLAND EUGENICS AND OTHER EVILS THE SUPERSTITION OF DIVORCE THE APPETITE OF TYRANNY THE CRIMES OF ENGLAND THE BLATCHFORD CONTROVERSIES THE VICTORIAN AGE IN LITERATURE A MISCELLANY OF MEN ALARMS AND DISCURSIONS ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THE DEFENDANT TREMENDOUS TRIFLES UTOPIA OF USURERS AND OTHER ESSAYS THE USES OF DIVERSITY ESSAYS BY CHESTERTON A CHESTERTON CALENDAR —FICTION— THE INNOCENCE OF FATHER BROWN THE WISDOM OF FATHER BROWN THE MAN WHO WAS THURSDAY THE MAN WHO KNEW TOO MUCH THE NAPOLEON OF NOTTING HILL THE FLYING INN MANALIVE THE BALL AND THE CROSS THE CLUB OF QUEER TRADES THE TREES OF PRIDE OTHER STORIES —BIOGRAPHY— VARIED TYPES CHARLES DICKENS APPRECIATIONS AND CRITICISMS OF THE WORKS OF CHARLES DICKENS GEORGE BERNARD SHAW ROBERT BROWNING WILLIAM BLAKE G.F. WATTS BIOGRAPHIES BY CHESTERTON —POETRY— THE BALLAD OF THE WHITE HORSE THE BALLAD OF SAINT BARBARA THE WILD KNIGHT AND OTHER POEMS GREYBEARDS AT PLAY —PLAYS— MAGIC —CRITIQUES— GILBERT KEITH CHESTERTON by Cecil Chesterton GILBERT KEITH CHESTERTON by Patrick Braybrooke OTHER G. K. CHESTERTON CRITIQUES PUBLISHER: CATHOLIC WAY PUBLISHING


Survival Skills

Survival Skills

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  • Author: Kevin Williams
  • Publisher: Lulu.com
  • ISBN: 0244052891
  • Category :
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 210


Expect the Unexpected

Expect the Unexpected

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  • Author: John A. Broussard
  • Publisher: Bitingduck Press LLC
  • ISBN: 1932482423
  • Category : Fiction
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 388

The lovely, lonely princess wandered along the edge of a pond thinking about finding a mate, but her fatherOCOs kingdom was poor, and no noble had ever asked for her hand. Suddenly a large bullfrog jumped up on the bank and said, OC Kiss me and you will find a mate.OCO OC What do I have to lose?OCO thought the princess, as she stooped down and kissed the frog. Within moments, two frogs jumped happily into the pond and swam out together among the lily pads. Not what you expected? A short story called The Search for a Mate from Expect the Unexpected OC .a collection of over 80 short stories covering the gamut of surprise with the typical Broussard cleverness and humor. Mystery, romance, science fiction, discoveryOC with story titles such as The Square Watermelon, The Deshredder, and Ms. Chips . Boson Books also offers several mysteries by John Broussard. Visit our fiction page. For an author bio, photo, and a sample read visit www.bosonbooks.com."


Investments

Investments

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  • Author: Jones
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
  • ISBN: 1119578078
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 672

The revised and updated fourteenth edition of Investments: Analysis and Management explains the essentials of investing and supports good investment decisions. More than a simple introduction to the subject, this comprehensive textbook prepares students to handle real-world investment problems and controversies in a clear and accessible manner. Emphasizing readability, Authors Charles Jones and Gerald Jensen minimize complex formulas and simplify difficult material—enabling students of all levels and backgrounds to follow the entire discussion and delve further into the subject. Ideally suited for beginning courses in investments, this textbook is designed as a practical guide to help students gain foundational knowledge of investing and develop the analytic skills necessary for deciphering investment issues. Carefully organized chapters guide students through fundamental investing concepts, portfolio and capital market theory, common stock analysis and valuation, fixed-income and derivative securities, the specifics of security analysis and portfolio management, and more. A broad range of pedagogical tools—including bulleted summaries, numbered examples, spreadsheet exercises, computational problems, and an extensive set of chapter review questions—strengthens student comprehension and retention.


Mathematical Methods for Accident Reconstruction

Mathematical Methods for Accident Reconstruction

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  • Author: Harold Franck
  • Publisher: CRC Press
  • ISBN: 1420089013
  • Category : Law
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 310

Over the past 25 years, Harold and Darren Franck have investigated hundreds of accidents involving vehicles of almost every shape, size, and type imaginable. In Mathematical Methods for Accident Reconstruction: A Forensic Engineering Perspective, these seasoned experts demonstrate the application of mathematics to modeling accident reconstructions


The Last Chocolate Brownie

The Last Chocolate Brownie

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  • Author: Dave Courteen
  • Publisher: AuthorHouse
  • ISBN: 9781468577761
  • Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 298

Dave Courteen was 45 with a job he loved, two wonderful daughters and a gorgeous wife. Life was great and he had much to be thankful for but then his wife was diagnosed with advanced breast cancer. The Last Chocolate Brownie tells his story, diary style, as he tries to make sense of what his wife was going through. Originally written as a blog, which attracted over 20,000 hits, The Last Chocolate Brownie, is a story about how to live life when the going gets tough. Its a book that will sometimes make you smile, might make you cry, will certainly make you think and, above all, will provide hope. Its the perfect book for those who find themselves in the midst of a cancer battle or for anyone looking for encouragement when life has become challenging. Dave Courteen is donating all his proceeds from the sale of this book to Breakthrough Breast Cancer and the Woolverstone Wish Appeal at Ipswich Hospital - two charities that are at the heart of the battle to beat breast cancer.


Securing Ajax Applications

Securing Ajax Applications

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  • Author: Christopher Wells
  • Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
  • ISBN: 0596551533
  • Category : Computers
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 252

Ajax applications should be open yet secure. Far too often security is added as an afterthought. Potential flaws need to be identified and addressed right away. This book explores Ajax and web application security with an eye for dangerous gaps and offers ways that you can plug them before they become a problem. By making security part of the process from the start, you will learn how to build secure Ajax applications and discover how to respond quickly when attacks occur. Securing Ajax Applications succinctly explains that the same back-and-forth communications that make Ajax so responsive also gives invaders new opportunities to gather data, make creative new requests of your server, and interfere with the communications between you and your customers. This book presents basic security techniques and examines vulnerabilities with JavaScript, XML, JSON, Flash, and other technologies -- vital information that will ultimately save you time and money. Topics include: An overview of the evolving web platform, including APIs, feeds, web services and asynchronous messaging Web security basics, including common vulnerabilities, common cures, state management and session management How to secure web technologies, such as Ajax, JavaScript, Java applets, Active X controls, plug-ins, Flash and Flex How to protect your server, including front-line defense, dealing with application servers, PHP and scripting Vulnerabilities among web standards such as HTTP, XML, JSON, RSS, ATOM, REST, and XDOS How to secure web services, build secure APIs, and make open mashups secure Securing Ajax Applications takes on the challenges created by this new generation of web development, and demonstrates why web security isn't just for administrators and back-end programmers any more. It's also for web developers who accept the responsibility that comes with using the new wonders of the Web.