Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

2020-09-21
Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

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  • Author: Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith
  • Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
  • ISBN: 1474466370
  • Category : Political Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 307

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

2021
Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

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  • Author: Martha Whitesmith
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN: 9781474491112
  • Category : Cognitive science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 304

This text critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

2020-03-05
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

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  • Author: Richards J Heuer
  • Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
  • ISBN: 1839743050
  • Category : History
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 344

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations

2018-09-27
Cognitive Biases in Visualizations

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  • Author: Geoffrey Ellis
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 3319958313
  • Category : Computers
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 184

This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

Patterns of Error: Perceptual and Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis and Decision-Making

2005
Patterns of Error: Perceptual and Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis and Decision-Making

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  • Author:
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Cognitive styles
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 65

The history of man is written in choice. Whether simple or complex, on a whim or after labored consideration, inflamed by passion or calculated coolly, the judgments that we form and the choices that we make define who we are and what we want for the future. Yet most of us have little or no conscious awareness of the inner workings of our own minds. We often choose without understanding or accounting for the perceptions, intuitions, and inferences that underlie our decisions. So how do people make decisions? How do we cope with the volume and complexity of information in our environment without being overwhelmed? How do we use our senses to select and process this information, and how do we organize, contextualize, and conceptualize it once it reaches our brains? How do we form judgments about the value of a specific piece of information or about the likelihood of a particular event or outcome? And what are the factors that lead us astray? The search for answers to these questions is more than academic; understanding the fundamentals of perception and cognition is critical to effective analysis and decision-making. For those involved in national security, and particularly for those involved in the collection and analysis of national intelligence, an appreciation of the intricacies of these processes has real-world implications. As evidenced by the dramatic intelligence failures of the last few years, and in particular by the mistaken assessment concerning Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, understanding how we arrive at judgments and decisions can be quite literally a matter of life and death.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

1999
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

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  • Author: Richards J. Heuer
  • Publisher:
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Human information processing
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 212

Invisible Architects: Crafting the Future of Strategic Intelligence Analysis

2016-01-01
Invisible Architects: Crafting the Future of Strategic Intelligence Analysis

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  • Author: Mehrdad Qorbani
  • Publisher: Bloomsberry
  • ISBN:
  • Category : Political Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 73

"Invisible Architects: Crafting the Future of Strategic Intelligence Analysis" is a groundbreaking book that offers a deep dive into the intricate world of intelligence analysis. This comprehensive guide is designed for a diverse audience, including students of intelligence studies, professionals in the field, and anyone fascinated by the strategic shaping of global events. Key Features: Comprehensive Coverage: Explore the full spectrum of strategic intelligence analysis, from its historical roots to the cutting-edge methodologies shaping its future. Expert Insights: Benefit from the author's extensive experience and deep understanding of the field, providing readers with expert analysis and foresight. Real-World Case Studies: Engage with a variety of case studies that bring to life the successes, failures, and lessons learned in intelligence operations across different eras. Technological Evolution: Understand the impact of emerging technologies like AI, cyber intelligence, and big data analytics on the future of intelligence analysis. Ethical and Legal Frameworks: Navigate the complex ethical and legal considerations that are integral to responsible intelligence work in the modern world. Resource-Rich Appendices: Access a wealth of additional resources, including detailed case studies, technical guides, and listings of relevant conferences and workshops. What You Will Discover: - The unseen forces and 'invisible architects' behind major global events and decisions. - The evolving role of human intelligence in an increasingly digital world. - Strategies for adapting to and preparing for future challenges in global intelligence. - The balance between technological advancements and the timeless art of human analysis. - The importance of ethical considerations and legal compliance in intelligence operations. "Invisible Architects" is not just a book; it's an invitation to think critically and engage in the ever-evolving conversation that shapes our world. Whether you're a seasoned analyst or new to the field, this book will expand your understanding of the vital role intelligence plays in our global society. Review "Invisible Architects" is a masterful exploration of the complex world of strategic intelligence analysis. The author skillfully navigates through the history, evolution, and future of intelligence work, making it accessible to both professionals in the field and those new to the subject. The real-world case studies are particularly enlightening, offering a rare glimpse into the successes and failures of intelligence operations and their profound impact on global events. What sets this book apart is its comprehensive approach, seamlessly blending historical context with an insightful examination of modern technologies like AI and cyber intelligence. The chapters on ethical and legal considerations are thought-provoking, highlighting the delicate balance intelligence professionals must maintain in today's rapidly changing world. The inclusion of resource-rich appendices further enhances the book's value, providing readers with practical tools and additional learning materials. "Invisible Architects" is not just informative but also a compelling read, inviting readers to critically engage with the material and consider their role in the broader narrative of global intelligence. A must-read for anyone interested in the behind-the-scenes dynamics that shape our world.

Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals

2018-08-06
Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals

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  • Author: Godfrey Garner
  • Publisher: CRC Press
  • ISBN: 1351249339
  • Category : Business & Economics
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 301

There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as ‘target centric’ intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject. The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations. Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.

Sensemaking

2013-09-28
Sensemaking

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  • Author: David T. Moore
  • Publisher: Government Printing Office
  • ISBN: 9781937877002
  • Category : Critical thinking
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 236

In Sensemaking, David Moore advocates for a paradigm shift to improve analysis among intelligence practitioners, as well as intelligence collaboration with decision makers.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

2011-03-08
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

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  • Author: National Research Council
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 0309210941
  • Category : Social Science
  • Languages : en
  • Pages : 116

The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.